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ARTE DE FALSÁRIO
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- Details
- Category: Economia
- Created on Thursday, 01 January 2009 00:00
- Published on Tuesday, 24 July 2012 23:36
- Hits: 223
Autor: Eliana Cardoso
O subprime foi um gigantesco esquema de Ponzi - fraude em que, como na corrente da felicidade, ganha quem joga, até que a pirâmide invertida venha abaixo. Enquanto a bolha imobiliária americana cresceu, credores emitiram hipotecas ao deus-dará, bancos as empacotaram com emissão de títulos, que gestores de recursos compraram com dinheiro emprestado, contabilizando lucros não realizados. Fortunas se criaram e se perderam, mil vezes maiores que os US$ 50 milhões que Van Meegeren ganhou falsificando quadros de Vermeer e vendendo-os a museus na Holanda e a nazistas durante a 2ª Guerra Mundial. Frank Wynne conta essa história em Eu Fui Vermeer. De Beny Parnes, estrategista-chefe do BBM Investimentos, recebi o livro e a recomendação de traçar paralelos entre os desvarios do mercado financeiro na última década e os do falsário holandês na metade do século 20. O sucesso do falsário depende de dois elementos: avanço da tecnologia e desejo da vítima de se deixar enganar. O avanço técnico no caso de Meegeren foi a baquelita, primeiro plástico para fins comerciais, que lhe permitiu substituir o óleo vegetal como veículo na pintura. Com ela obteve o endurecimento da tinta, necessário para mantê-la inalterada em testes de autenticidade. No caso do esquema financeiro, a inovação tecnológica combinou derivativos com artimanhas de controle de risco, como a securitização que transformava em títulos AAA empréstimos hipotecários - cuja qualidade era tão ruim que até mesmo Alan Greenspan, depois do desastre consumado, se confessou em estado de choque. Quanto ao segundo elemento necessário ao seu sucesso, Van Meegeren encontrou-o no desejo dos críticos de descobrir quadros de um período intermediário na obra de Vermeer. Apesar da pequena produção do pintor seiscentista, existe uma disparidade gritante de estilo e tema entre Diana e suas Companheiras (obra do artista jovem) e A Leiteira (o primeiro trabalho da maturidade). No vazio entre um e outro, os críticos imaginaram um Vermeer desaparecido, que uniria as duas fases. O falsário identificou o desejo dos críticos e o realizou. "Falsificações são um retrato cambiante dos desejos humanos. Cada sociedade falsifica as coisas que mais cobiça", argumenta Mark Jones em The Art of Deception. No começo do século 21 o desejo era o de uma vida incompatível com os ganhos da economia real. A ganância incitava a crença na ausência de riscos, na morte do ciclo de negócios e no céu como limite para as taxas de crescimento. Beny Parnes observa: "Os agentes financeiros sabiam o que faziam. Ou quase todos. Com certeza não faltava consciência de seus próprios atos aos empacotadores de hipotecas e aos bancos que colocavam esses pacotes em suas carteiras de investimento. Os compradores dos ativos suspeitavam do que estava acontecendo. Mas o desejo de altos rendimentos gerava a crença em hipóteses bobas sobre risco e o incentivo para entrar no negócio e comprar o Vermeer de Meegeren." Como dizia Maquiavel, "quem trapaceia sempre encontra quem se deixa trapacear, porque os homens cedem prontamente a desejos momentâneos". A diferença entre a experiência dos falsários de hoje e a de Meegeren está na seqüela da trapaça. Meegeren agiu como indivíduo isolado. Preso, e depois absolvido, causou prejuízos e decepção a museus e seus freqüentadores, mas não um desastre econômico. No século 21 a ação coletiva de milhares de investidores produziu uma bolha hipotecária que mudou a alocação de recursos e terminou em catástrofe para o globo. Nos EUA os economistas esperam a pior recessão desde a década de 1950. A queda da bolsa indica que os investidores apostam numa recessão profunda e severa, ainda pior que a do início da década de 1980. Os gastos dos consumidores apresentaram queda pelo quarto mês consecutivo em outubro. O mercado imobiliário ainda não se estabilizou e os preços das casas são hoje 20% mais baixos do que no pico de 2007. Apenas em novembro de 2008 se perdeu mais de meio milhão de empregos. Com más notícias se multiplicando a cada dia, como manter a calma? A boa nova é que, pelo menos, o momento mais assustador da crise financeira ficou para trás (embora seus custos recessivos estejam apenas começando). A taxa Libor, que um banco oferece a outro, caiu abaixo do nível de pânico a que chegou logo após a bancarrota do Lehman Brothers. Calcula-se que o valor necessário para resolver os problemas no mercado de CDS (swaps de crédito cujo montante é de US$ 55 trilhões) chegue a 1,5% dessa quantia, ou seja, menos de US$ 1 trilhão. É muito dinheiro. Mas o PIB americano de um mês é maior. Portanto, não é fatal. No Brasil, duvide de quem lhe promete um PIB crescendo a 4% em 2009. Mas desconfie dos alarmistas também. Parte do pessimismo deriva do sentimento de perda produzido por prejuízos financeiros volumosos, lembrou Oswaldo Assis, sócio do Banco Pactual, em seminário na USP na semana passada. Vale lembrar que o mercado financeiro no Brasil apresenta características muito diferentes das do mercado americano: compulsório alto, crédito imobiliário pequeno, securitização e alavancagem baixas. As operações de balcão não registradas são pequenas. Não há mercado de CDS, as seguradoras são rentáveis. Em resposta à redução do nível de atividade o Banco Central pode cortar a Selic, mesmo que a inflação não fique no centro da meta. Nos EUA, o Fed anunciou que o encontro de dezembro deve durar dois dias, em vez de um - preparando, talvez, novo plano para ressuscitar o crédito. Dentro de 40 dias os EUA darão posse ao novo presidente, que chega com um pacote fiscal de US$ 700 bilhões em investimentos para reanimar a economia. Torço pelo seu sucesso, pois a evolução desta crise deixou claro que o que acontece por lá repercute aqui. Eliana Cardoso é professora titular da EESP-FGV Site: www.elianacardoso.com |
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