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EU? FAZER O QUE EM BRASÍLIA?
- Details
- Category: Economia
- Created on Tuesday, 18 December 2012 18:22
- Published on Saturday, 05 January 2013 18:22
- Hits: 234
Escrito por: Ubiratan Jorge Iorio
“Quid Romae faciam? Mentiri nescio”.
(Que hei de fazer em Roma? Não sei mentir - Decimus Junius Juvenalis – 55 DC/138 DC)
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O "SONHO DE KEYNES" É O NOSSO PESADELO!
- Details
- Category: Economia
- Created on Sunday, 08 January 2012 00:00
- Published on Wednesday, 25 July 2012 00:12
- Hits: 210
Autor: Ubiratan Jorge Iorio de Souza
Como se sabe, os principais bancos centrais do mundo, a saber, o Fed, o BCE e os da Inglaterra, Suíça, Japão e Canadá resolveram cingir suas cinturas com o manto de "salvadores das economias do planeta" e decidiram intensificar (ainda mais!) o provimento de liquidez e "amparo" ao sistema financeiro global.
Decretaram também a redução dos custos de carregamento das carteiras em dólares, para o que não titubearão em emitir papéis pintados com o retrato de George Washington e outros pais da pátria, "sempre que isto se tornar necessário" (eles têm a arrogância de julgarem que sabem quando "isto" se tornará ser "necessário")... Além disso, como mencionou Jeffrey Tucker em seu excelente artigo A união dos bancos centrais mundiais e a transição para o sonho keynesiano, publicado pelo site do Instituto Ludwig von Mises Brasil na postagem de 1º de dezembro, decretaram que os bancos deverão ter "acesso imediato ao dinheiro em qualquer moeda, de acordo com as condições de mercado" (eles também julgam que sabem o que realmente significa o processo de mercado)...
É um passo, sem dúvida, em direção à criação de um banco central mundial e, segundo alguns, ao estabelecimento de uma moeda global, pretensa solução advogada por Lorde Keynes nos últimos anos de sua vida. Keynes chegou inclusive a dar um nome a essa excrescência: bancor. Sua idéia era retirar o poder inflacionário de cada país e entregar esse poder, imensamente multiplicado, a um banco central mundial, o que, segundo pensava, livraria o mundo dos problemas de "ausência de coordenação" ("coordenação", para Keynes, significava manipulação de políticas de "sintonia fina").
Na época, como observa Tucker no mencionado artigo,"a ideia não vingou, mas as instituições que supostamente deveriam administrar tal sistema foram de fato criadas: o Fundo Monetário Internacional e o Banco Mundial", que acabaram se transformando progressivamente em algo como que Ongs assistencialistas, assim como a ONU. Todos esses organismos deveriam ser sumariamente extintos, porque se transformaram em redutos de política e, em alguns casos, até, de corrupção.
O "sonho keynesiano", na realidade é um pesadelo! Um banco central mundial é uma idéia que vai contra tudo o que os economistas austríacos sempre defenderam em suas teorias dos mercados, da moeda, do capital, dos juros e dos ciclos econômicos. Sob o manto do sonho de Keynes, as recentes decisões dos bancos centrais na verdade representam, claramente, um presente para os bancos do mundo inteiro, tal como as rodadas de Quantitative Easing.
Que o sistema bancário anda há anos beirando a bancarrota não é segredo nem para um mosquito que ronda uma vaca sonolenta em um pasto qualquer, conforme mostrou Fernando Ulrich em artigo muito esclarecedor, publicado também no site do IMB, em 11 de novembro passado, O dilema do sistema bancário e as regras da Basileia, em que expõe claramente a fragilidade do sistema de reservas fracionárias e o caráter de "clube de banqueiros" do comitê da Basileia.
Sugiro fortemente a leitura desses dois artigos. Mas minha preocupação aqui é outra, certamente complementar às de Tucker e Ulrich: é mostrar que esses passos no sentido da criação de um banco central e de uma moeda mundial são um ataque, já não direi apenas aos ensinamentos austríacos, mas ao bom senso e, embora muitos não o percebam, às liberdades individuais.
Comecemos pelo bom senso - ou pela falta de bom senso. Um banco central mundial, além de concentrar um grau de autoridade inadmissível, é uma afronta a um dos mais elementares princípios que regem a eficiência, seja ela política, econômica, administrativa e, mesmo, da vida de qualquer grupo: o princípio da subsidiariedade, que acaba de ser mandado às favas pelos banqueiros centrais dos países desenvolvidos. É uma ode ao planejamento central, agora globalizado, com todas as consequências nefandas que esse tipo de organização acarreta para as sociedades.
Quem comandará esse banco super-poderoso? Economistas iluminados, com seus modelos de equilíbrio geral que tratam pessoas como aquelas esferas que deslizam em planos inclinados, que aprendemos nas primeiras aulas de Física? Terão eles os conhecimentos suficientes para saberem que quantidades "corretas" de moeda e de crédito devem circular pela economia planetária ou estarão sujeitos às limitações e à dispersão do conhecimento, que Hayek tão bem apontou? Saberão eles os bilhões de planos individuais de todos os agentes econômicos da terra, da Patagônia ao Alasca, das Ilhas Falkland ao leste da África, planos que acarretam ações, as quais por sua vez implicam cursos de mais e mais ações ao longo do tempo real, subjetivo e sob condições de incerteza? Para onde esses pretensiosos querem nos empurrar, Madonna mia? Para um totalitarismo monetário mundial? Tudo isso para salvar bancos insolventes, que acreditaram nos contos da Carochinha? Como dizem os gaúchos, bah!
Com relação à EAE, é evidente que Bernanke e seus pares de outros países não sabem que os mercados são processos que tendem para o equilíbrio, mas que jamais alcançam esse equilíbrio, não conhecem a teoria da moeda de Mises, não desconfiam nem que existe uma teoria do capital de Böhm-Bawerk e nunca leram nada sobre a TACE! Só estudaram keynesianismo, monetarismo, expectativas racionais e econometria, enfim, só conhecem o paradigma falido da mainstream economics. Se tivessem estudado os autores austríacos com a atenção que estes sempre mereceram, saberiam que a própria idéia de um banco central nacional é uma defesa descabida de um monopólio, que o valor da moeda sempre cai em relação aos dos demais bens e serviços quando as máquinas impressoras são colocadas para funcionar da maneira como está ocorrendo, que a moeda "nova" não cai de helicóptero nas mãos de todos, mas é despejada em um setor específico da estrutura de capital da economia e que expansões de crédito não lastreadas em poupança genuína - como as que vêm fazendo irresponsavelmente - acabam inexoravelmente levando à inflação e à sua consequência, o desemprego.
Por fim, no que diz respeito à violação das liberdades individuais, é evidente que a centralização da moeda e do crédito nas mãos de uma autoridade mundial vai se constituir em um monopólio muito mais forte do que os atuais monopólios nacionais. Meia dúzia de economistas supostamente sábios vão interferir na ação humana de mais de seis bilhões de indivíduos, vão dirigir, ou afetar indiretamente a função empresarial e vão desviar recursos que os mercados alocariam de maneira diferente.
Sempre sustentei que o Euro foi um erro, mesmo quando era moda afirmar o contrário. Com o seu advento, governos de países como Grécia, Portugal e Itália, entre outros, que nunca tiveram moedas fortes, passaram a acreditar que o passe de mágica do Euro os havia colocado em tal condição. Voilà - pensavam os políticos desses países - agora temos uma moeda que, no fundo, é lastreada no antigo marco do Deutsche Bundesbank. Deram-nos a cornucópia inexaurível! Preocupar-se com a dívida soberana? Ora, isso seria coisa para as gerações futuras...
Do lado fiscal, a coisa não está menos desanimadora, haja vista a declaração da Sra. Angela Merkel de que, agora, a Europa caminha para uma "unidade fiscal"... Como ela convencerá os taxpayers alemães a bancarem as orgias dos governos grego, português e italiano?
Parece que os governos estão se comportando como um grupo em um restaurante, em que todos já sabem que gastaram mais do que poderão pagar ao garçom, mas que continuam comendo e bebendo...
É evidente que essas medidas anunciadas não poderão dar bons resultados e nosso receio é que, com isso, venham a ser tomadas mais e mais medidas, até que o mundo inteiro seja envolvido pela nuvem negra da estagflação.
Talvez então alguns economistas não austríacos percebam que o "sonho" de um banco central mundial do senhor Keynes é um pesadelo. Como tudo o que ele escreveu, aliás. E que compreendam que Friedman, mesmo defendendo o livre mercado, no fundo, acreditava em sua própria frase: "we are all keynesians"... |
A TRAGÉDIA GREGA
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- Category: Economia
- Created on Saturday, 08 May 2010 00:00
- Published on Wednesday, 25 July 2012 00:09
- Hits: 220
Autor: Nivaldo Cordeiro
Citando a crise na Grécia, que logo se estenderá a outros países da União Européia, Nivaldo Cordeiro denuncia as distorções de Clóvis Rossi sobre a questão, e comenta aspectos nefastos da social-democracia.
As mortes registradas nos distúrbios de ontem, na Grécia, é só o prelúdio do que nos espera nos próximos meses, talvez nos próximos anos. E não apenas naquele infeliz país, mas em todo Ocidente, onde a social-democracia prevaleceu. Estamos vendo seu projeto político desmoronar. Quem, minimamente letrado em ciência econômica, observou os acontecimentos sabia que a construção de uma sociedade de rentistas sem capital, munidos apenas de "direitos"e de "conquistas", protegidos pela lei estatal injusta, iria se deparar com esse beco sem saída. A social-democracia é a variante comunista que propõe manter formalmente o regime de propriedade privada, reconhecendo o fracasso do planejamento socialista, mas retirando os recursos de quem trabalha manipulando a via dos impostos e da inflação, emitindo moeda e alargando o endividamento público. Vemos que os limites da carga tributária foram batidos; agora estamos diante do esgotamento da via inflacionária. Na Grécia, como de resto em toda a Europa ocidental, assim como nos EUA, vemos que o setor financeiro está em vias de quebrar ou colocou limites claros aos tomadores de empréstimos. O limite é técnico, além do qual os próprios banqueiros poderão ir à bancarrota.
Na Grécia todas as vias foram esgotadas. Impostos elevados convivem com dívidas impagáveis e a impossibilidade de desvalorizar a moeda comum, o euro. Só restou a via do corte de gastos públicos, com demissões de funcionários e a abolição de "conquistas" para aqueles que permanecerem no serviço público. Pouco a pouco a imprensa internacional vai informando o quanto o Estado grego tem sido generoso com seus empregados e aposentados. A casa ruiu.
Ao ler a coluna de Clóvis Rossi, na Folha de São Paulo de ontem (5), O arrastão financeiro, não pude conter o meu espanto. Ele escreveu sobre a crise grega: "A ganância desenfreada tornou-se o combustível que move uma parte importante do setor financeiro. O que surpreende é o silêncio de governantes, acadêmicos e até dos bancos não corsários, igualmente vítimas".
O jornalista da Folha ignorou a causa única da crise grega, a irresponsabilidade fiscal, atribuindo a culpa aos banqueiros internacionais. Caro leitor, não caia nessa falsa explicação. O governo grego, assim como o de toda a zona do euro, dos EUA e mesmo do Brasil sofrem de um único mal: o populismo econômico. Ele quer distribuir benesses sem contrapartida, pagando rendimentos crescentes a legiões de desocupados, na forma de salários aos funcionários públicos, aos aposentados, aos recebedores de bolsas e aos rentistas de forma geral. Quando a massa parasita dependente do Tesouro é pequena não há desequilíbrio, mas quando se torna um fenômeno de multidão, legiões cada vez mais numerosas vivendo à custa de uma população que trabalha, cada vez mais escassa, o jogo termina por ilogicismo. O parasita não pode ser maior do que o hospedeiro.
O jogo da social-democracia acabou, e não apenas na Grécia. É chegada a hora dos ajustes dolorosos.
Bem sabemos que há gerações de pessoas vivendo à custa dos que trabalham, recebendo ilegitimamente seu quinhão de impostos. A interrupção do ócio dourado será dolorida. Nada dura para sempre, nem mesmo a injustiça. Resta saber como a equação política será montada para a aplicação dos ajustes necessários. Haverá choro e ranger de dentes. Tempos de grandes perigos.
BRASILIA DIXIT: PEDRO NÃO É MAIS PEDRO!
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- Category: Economia
- Created on Thursday, 01 October 2009 00:00
- Published on Wednesday, 25 July 2012 00:00
- Hits: 231
Autor: Ubiratan Jorge Iório de Souza
Nosso brilhante Congresso aprovou ontem projeto de nosso não menos reluzente Executivo, reduzindo a meta de superávit primário de 2009 de 3,8% para 2,5% do PIB. Os luzidios representantes em Brasília também aprovaram a retirada do cálculo do superávit primário dos investimentos da Petrobras e o abatimento de até 0,94% do PIB das despesas com o PAC e do Minha Casa, Minha Vida, decretando, assim, que, doravante e até ordem em contrário, Pedro não se chama mais Pedro... De fato, como o relatório de previsão de receitas e despesas do Ministério do Planejamento, divulgado em 18 de setembro, já apontava que o governo não conseguiria atingir as metas fiscais previamente estabelecidas para o corrente ano, acharam por bem, simplesmente, para manter a farra da gastança eleitoral, suprimir aquelas despesas, como se não fossem despesas. Inacreditável! O Banco Central, por sua vez, diante da inexorabilidade da aludida farra e da queda das receitas, piorou sua projeção para a dívida pública deste ano, que deverá atingir em dezembro os 43,3% do PIB, superior, portanto, aos 41,4% anteriormente previstos e, mesmo assim, considerando que a meta de 2,5% para o superávit primário será alcançada, o que é pouco provável, já que as previsões do mercado apontam para algo em torno de 1,56% do PIB. É lamentável o que vem ocorrendo com o déficit nominal (ou Necessidades de Financiamento do Setor Público), a variável que realmente importa, pois é o seu total (e não o resultado primário) que precisa ser financiado, seja com impostos, com inflação, com dívida interna e/ou com dívida externa: no período janeiro/agosto, o déficit nominal (que inclui os pagamentos de juros por parte do setor público) passou de R$ 16,6 bilhões em 2008 para R$ 64,8 bilhões em 2009, um aumento nominal, ou seja, sem descontar a inflação, de 268,2%! Considerando uma inflação anual perto de 4,5%, vemos que o incremento real também é fantástico. É impressionante como tentam esconder sob a forma de truques contábeis o que não pode ser ocultado! Assim como Pedro é Pedro, gastos são gastos e precisam ser financiados, caramba! Sejam eles gastos com estradas, segurança pública ou educação ou com chafarizes, estádios de futebol ou estátuas de parentes de políticos: é apenas a velha Contabilidade, não é nenhuma teoria econômica ortodoxa. Essa conta imoral terá que ser paga algum dia, seja por nós, por nossos filhos ou - como desconfio - netos e bisnetos...
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